Oscar
night makes Kal Kat a bad guesser again
Hours
before the Oscars, using data from current film reviews, and from Kat and
Cards' Thursday discussion, Kat picked some of the winners again, less than
last year, and they're in italic.
Best
Picture will again go to the most popular, crowd pleasing film of the year,
which is still Argo, not Les Miserables, or Lincoln. Favorites to win are the
other two. Silver Linings Playbook was not that popular and will not win.
Lincoln will not win because it’s too obvious, being Spielberg and he’s a
leader in the Oscar oldies. It would be cheating, again.
Well
actually Argo did nail Best Picture to upset Zero Dark Thirty and Les
Miserables and Lincoln. It won because the controversy in it is 32 years old
and nobody would argue it except the little details, and some minor bloopers,
and it would win. Les Mis didn't get it because even though Hollywood loves the
musical, Oscar stogies do not.
Argo
also took Film Editing and Screenplay.
Best
Actor will not go to Argo’s Alan Arkin though, but to Lincoln’s Daniel Day
Lewis, to pander to the crowd, and will not go to High Jackman for Les
Mis.
The
end game is the thing, as it appeared Lincoln was a favorite this past month
and was going to win for actor, so Kat was spot on.
Best
Actress will not go to fan favorite Quevenshane Wallis for Beasts of the
Southern Wild (unless it wins best picture, which it will not). It will instead
go to Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. This is because the
actress is more well known than the other. It will entirely be her notoriety.
Not if she was good in the part. Wallis is just too young, Old Oscar farts will
not recognize her, like they didn’t Keisha Hughes twelve years ago.
The
performance Lawrence gave in the film was amazing, after reflection, and it was
likely she won based on that, not on being popular. The film itself was not all
that popular. Kat got this one right too ut for the wrong reason.
Best
Supporting Actor could go to Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook only
because he is getting old and he’s not going to be around much longer to be in
movies. The other choices are pretty lame really. Maybe Alan Arkin for Argo? It
has to be De Niro. If it isn’t it’s wrong.
Best
Supporting Actress should go to Ann Hathaway of Les Miserables, but might go to
Sally Fields for Lincoln, but only if Lincoln also won for supporting actor
Jones and actor, Lewis, which who wins for Lincoln only if Lincoln wins
picture, and it’s not going to happen unless Spielberg cheated again.
Can
you have a vote on diminishing choices? Yep, Kal Kat is half right again, as
best supporting actress went to Ann Hathaway for Les Mis. This is because the
performance was incredible. They really had no others to choose from that
did it like she did.
List
of Oscar movies
Django
Unchained (too weird and witty, not going to win)
Actually
supporting actor, Christoph Waltz did win and it also won in some tech
categories and for adapted screenplay, a surprise upset. Again the choice
material was not current or topical. That helped a lot.
Argo
(best picture, has everything, crowd pleasing, old controversy)
Nailed
it.
Silver
Linings Playbook (but really it’s the only drama with some humor and may not
win)
It's
a good drama movie about a mental person and Oscar loves that, but it wasn't
going to get it over Argo.
Les
Miserables (dramatic musicals rarely win)
Yes,
Les Miserables is the most crowd gathering, but not pleasant movie, as it's
about a revolution, but it did deserve something more. An upset.
Lincoln
(might win if Spielberg cheated again)
It
did win for actor and for some technical stuff. It could have won picture, but
the fix wasn't in.
Life
of Pi (too weird. It’s not going to win)
Life
of Pie ended up winning for makeup and other technical awards.
Beasts
of the Southern Wild
Not
reviewed by Kal Kat. Was not widely released.
Zero
Dark Thirty (too controversial to win)
Exactly,
but it's the most topical movie choice and people will buy the DVD. It did win
in editing and technical categories.
Brave
won for best animated film, beating out lesser known but more popular and
better Wreck It Ralph. Old Oscar fogies didn't understand Wreck It Ralph.
Why
these Clara movie choices did not win.
Best
Fantasy/Science Fiction
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
Science Fiction has not been recognized since 2001 and Alien and
ET. It is not going to be until they make a talking, long winded, boring drama
in space. Then they will have very little audience.
Nod
to "The Hobbit an Unexpected Journey"
They did kind of pay homage to the Hobbit and Kat later
made a music tribute to 'Far Over the Misty Mountains Cold'.
Best
Animated Fantasy
“Wreck It Ralph”
This was a better movie than Brave but the old farts rating Oscar
never saw it. Third choice Arietty was never even considered.
Best
Horror/Thriller
“Django Unchained”
Actually they did all right by this film at Oscar surprisingly.
Cabin in the Woods was just something Oscar never reviewed.
Best
Drama, Best Picture of the Year
“Les Miserables”
Nods
to The Wallflower, Argo
This is because at the time of the Clara awards, Silver Linings
Playbook and Argo had not yet become intensely popular. Once they did, they
were going to get Oscars. Les Mis will have a special place of honor though and
many people will rent or buy it for the songs. A year from now, even though it
was good, Argo will be another 'bargain bin Oscar movie' like Slumdog Millionaire
and There Will Be Blood. Confessions of a Wallflower was virtually ignored.
Best
Comedy
“21 Jump Street the Movie”
Really? Django was way funnier. We missed the ball on that one.
Sorry.
Best
Director Nods
Peter
Jackson, "The Hobbit an Unexpected Journey"
No, Ang Lee of Brokeback Mountain fame walked away with it for
Life of Pi, an upset but an interesting one. For technical staging direction, Les Mis and Argo tied, and Zero Dark Thirty was done doc. style and
needed a nod. still the Hobbit was not all that good. Jackson's film was good
but will likely not go bargain DVD anytime soon when it comes out, as fans will
pay full price. Still Life of Pi is going that way. It will also be cheap in a
year. Once you've seen the twist ending that's it, like in Signs and Sixth
Sense. (Kat did give Ang Lee a nod in December though).
Nods
in December 2012: Chris Nolan, "The Dark Knight Rises"
Joss
Whedon, "The Cain in the Woods"
Ben
Affleck, "Argo"
DKR wasn't that good and the other two weren't that bad,
but not the best.
Best
Fantasy Director
Pater Jackson, The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey
Best
Drama Director
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Best
Thriller Director
Quentin Tarantino, Django
Nod
to Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
So they didn't pick the others but not based on best
story but on technical wizardry, which begs the question, why didn't those
Harry Potter movies ever win? Oscar oldies are just boring old men! That's why.
Visual
Effects Achievement: the Tiger in Life of Pi, the 48 frames mode in the Hobbit,
the visuals in Dark Knight Rises, the living carnivorous island in"Life of
Pi".
Yes
Life of Pi did get something. TDKR did get a nod.
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