Monday, February 25, 2013

The 85th Academy Awards again miss the mark

Oscar night makes Kal Kat a bad guesser again

 Hours before the Oscars, using data from current film reviews, and from Kat and Cards' Thursday discussion, Kat picked some of the winners again, less than last year, and they're in italic.

Best Picture will again go to the most popular, crowd pleasing film of the year, which is still Argo, not Les Miserables, or Lincoln. Favorites to win are the other two. Silver Linings Playbook was not that popular and will not win. Lincoln will not win because it’s too obvious, being Spielberg and he’s a leader in the Oscar oldies. It would be cheating, again. 

Well actually Argo did nail Best Picture to upset Zero Dark Thirty and Les Miserables and Lincoln. It won because the controversy in it is 32 years old and nobody would argue it except the little details, and some minor bloopers, and it would win. Les Mis didn't get it because even though Hollywood loves the musical, Oscar stogies do not.

Argo also took Film Editing and Screenplay. 

Best Actor will not go to Argo’s Alan Arkin though, but to Lincoln’s Daniel Day Lewis, to pander to the crowd, and will not go to High Jackman for Les Mis. 

The end game is the thing, as it appeared Lincoln was a favorite this past month and was going to win for actor, so Kat was spot on. 

Best Actress will not go to fan favorite Quevenshane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild (unless it wins best picture, which it will not). It will instead go to Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. This is because the actress is more well known than the other. It will entirely be her notoriety. Not if she was good in the part. Wallis is just too young, Old Oscar farts will not recognize her, like they didn’t Keisha Hughes twelve years ago. 

The performance Lawrence gave in the film was amazing, after reflection, and it was likely she won based on that, not on being popular. The film itself was not all that popular. Kat got this one right too ut for the wrong reason.

Best Supporting Actor could go to Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook only because he is getting old and he’s not going to be around much longer to be in movies. The other choices are pretty lame really. Maybe Alan Arkin for Argo? It has to be De Niro. If it isn’t it’s wrong.

Best Supporting Actress should go to Ann Hathaway of Les Miserables, but might go to Sally Fields for Lincoln, but only if Lincoln also won for supporting actor Jones and actor, Lewis, which who wins for Lincoln only if Lincoln wins picture, and it’s not going to happen unless Spielberg cheated again. 

Can you have a vote on diminishing choices? Yep, Kal Kat is half right again, as best supporting actress went to Ann Hathaway for Les Mis. This is because the performance was incredible.  They really had no others to choose from that did it like she did.

List of Oscar movies

Django Unchained (too weird and witty, not going to win)

Actually supporting actor, Christoph Waltz did win and it also won in some tech categories and for adapted screenplay, a surprise upset. Again the choice material was not current or topical. That helped a lot. 

Argo (best picture, has everything, crowd pleasing, old controversy)

Nailed it. 

Silver Linings Playbook (but really it’s the only drama with some humor and may not win)

It's a good drama movie about a mental person and Oscar loves that, but it wasn't going to get it over Argo. 

Les Miserables (dramatic musicals rarely win)

Yes, Les Miserables is the most crowd gathering, but not pleasant movie, as it's about a revolution, but it did deserve something more. An upset. 

Lincoln (might win if Spielberg cheated again)

It did win for actor and for some technical stuff. It could have won picture, but the fix wasn't in. 

Life of Pi (too weird. It’s not going to win)

Life of Pie ended up winning for makeup and other technical awards. 

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Not reviewed by Kal Kat. Was not widely released. 

Zero Dark Thirty (too controversial to win)

Exactly, but it's the most topical movie choice and people will buy the DVD. It did win in editing and technical categories.


Brave won for best animated film, beating out lesser known but more popular and better Wreck It Ralph. Old Oscar fogies didn't understand Wreck It Ralph.

Why these Clara movie choices did not win.

Best Fantasy/Science Fiction
“Marvel’s The Avengers”

Science Fiction has not been recognized since 2001 and Alien and ET. It is not going to be until they make a talking, long winded, boring drama in space. Then they will have very little audience.
Nod to "The Hobbit an Unexpected Journey"

 They did kind of pay homage to the Hobbit and Kat later made a music tribute to 'Far Over the Misty Mountains Cold'.

Best Animated Fantasy
“Wreck It Ralph”

This was a better movie than Brave but the old farts rating Oscar never saw it. Third choice Arietty was never even considered.
 
Best Horror/Thriller
“Django Unchained”

 Actually they did all right by this film at Oscar surprisingly. Cabin in the Woods was just something Oscar never reviewed.

Best Drama, Best Picture of the Year
“Les Miserables” 
Nods to The Wallflower, Argo

This is because at the time of the Clara awards, Silver Linings Playbook and Argo had not yet become intensely popular. Once they did, they were going to get Oscars. Les Mis will have a special place of honor though and many people will rent or buy it for the songs. A year from now, even though it was good, Argo will be another 'bargain bin Oscar movie' like Slumdog Millionaire and There Will Be Blood. Confessions of a Wallflower was virtually ignored.

Best Comedy
“21 Jump Street the Movie” 

Really? Django was way funnier. We missed the ball on that one. Sorry.
Best Director Nods
Peter Jackson, "The Hobbit an Unexpected Journey"

No, Ang Lee of Brokeback Mountain fame walked away with it for Life of Pi, an upset but an interesting one.  For technical staging direction, Les Mis and Argo tied, and Zero Dark Thirty was done doc. style and needed a nod. still the Hobbit was not all that good. Jackson's film was good but will likely not go bargain DVD anytime soon when it comes out, as fans will pay full price. Still Life of Pi is going that way. It will also be cheap in a year. Once you've seen the twist ending that's it, like in Signs and Sixth Sense. (Kat did give Ang Lee a nod in December though).

Nods in December 2012: Chris Nolan, "The Dark Knight Rises"
Joss Whedon, "The Cain in the Woods"
Ben Affleck, "Argo" 

 DKR wasn't that good and the other two weren't that bad, but not the best.

Best Fantasy Director
Pater Jackson, The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey
Best Drama Director
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Best Thriller Director
Quentin Tarantino, Django
Nod to Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"

 So they didn't pick the others but not based on best story but on technical wizardry, which begs the question, why didn't those Harry Potter movies ever win? Oscar oldies are just boring old men! That's why.

Visual Effects Achievement: the Tiger in Life of Pi, the 48 frames mode in the Hobbit, the visuals in Dark Knight Rises, the living carnivorous island in"Life of Pi".

Yes Life of Pi did get something. TDKR did get a nod. 

 

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